Tennessee vs Virginia on USAspending: close in people, not in dollars

A peer-sized state with a $3.6B file

Treat the $3.6B and $110.8B figures as USAspending.gov obligations, not Treasury outlays. Tennessee is large enough that a casual reader might expect its federal award total to sit nearer Virginia’s. The table does not cooperate. Award counts are 63,616 in Tennessee and 1,116,647 in Virginia.

Population (7,227,750 vs 8,811,195) is the wrong explanation for a thirty-fold dollar gap. Tennessee’s economy includes major private employers and federal facilities; those facts still do not produce a $110.8B obligation stock in this aggregate. Virginia’s file is a different species of federal-award density.

Ninety-eight dollars per person vs $1,344

Spending per capita of $97.50 in Tennessee and $1,344.24 in Virginia already divides out headcount. After that division, Virginia remains more than thirteen times as intensive. The $3.6B versus $110.8B ranking and the per-capita ranking agree on order; per capita is the one that survives the “but Tennessee is a big state” objection.

Readers comparing Southern states to Virginia should keep that $97.50 figure in view. It is not a rounding of Virginia’s rate. It is a different obligation intensity.

Couriers in Tennessee, computer services in Virginia

Tennessee’s top industry is couriers and express delivery services. Virginia’s is other computer related services. Memphis-area parcel and air-cargo work is a known federal and commercial logistics node; this aggregate’s lead slice matches that reputation without proving every dollar is a package. Virginia’s lead slice matches the IT-services belt around Washington.

Courier-led mixes can generate many discrete awards without matching a professional-services dollar stack. Tennessee’s 63,616 awards on $3.6B versus Virginia’s 1,116,647 on $110.8B is consistent with that difference in mix, not proof of it for every transaction.

FY2026: $704.7M vs $11.8B

FY2026 obligations are $704.7M in Tennessee and $11.8B in Virginia. Tennessee’s latest year is a large piece of the $3.6B stack; Virginia’s $11.8B is one year inside $110.8B. Use FY2026 for the most recent bookings. Use the stacked totals for the full USAspending.gov aggregate this comparison draws on.

Tennessee’s $704.7M in FY2026 is the recency cut for a $3.6B stack that also includes earlier years. Virginia’s $11.8B latest year remains far larger. Courier-led mixes can repeat annually, which can make FY2026 look like a sizable share of Tennessee’s stock without closing on $110.8B. Do not divide $704.7M by Tennessee’s 63,616 all-years awards. Per capita of $97.50 on 7,227,750 residents versus $1,344.24 on 8,811,195 residents is the intensity comparison that already adjusts for Tennessee’s large Census count. Cite obligations from USAspending.gov in both columns.

How not to over-read a neighbor-sized comparison

Tennessee and Virginia are both populous Eastern states. That geographic rhyme does not make $3.6B and $110.8B comparable as “fair shares.” Obligations follow award place of performance, not a population formula. For agencies and recipients, open the Tennessee and Virginia state pages. Keep outlays in a separate mental column. Tennessee and Virginia are both large Eastern states. That rhyme does not create a formula that should have produced similar obligation totals. $3.6B and $110.8B are what USAspending.gov place-of-performance aggregates show in this file.

Tennessee’s 7,227,750 people are the reason this pair is a control-variable lesson. A peer-sized population and a $3.6B file can coexist. Virginia’s $110.8B and 1,116,647 awards are a different density of federal work. Couriers and express delivery services versus other computer related services names the lead slices, not every NAICS code. Treasury outlays are a later cash concept. Use the Tennessee and Virginia hubs for agencies and recipients.

Using Tennessee’s near-peer population as a control

Hold 7,227,750 versus 8,811,195 in one hand and $3.6B versus $110.8B in the other. The population ratio is close; the dollar ratio is not. Per capita of $97.50 versus $1,344.24 is that mismatch after division. Award counts of 63,616 versus 1,116,647 follow the dollars more than the people.

FY2026 ($704.7M vs $11.8B) does not reverse the order. Couriers and express delivery services versus other computer related services names the lead slices. Keep the unit as USAspending.gov obligations. Treasury outlays, state budgets, and private payrolls are different series.

Questions

How do Tennessee and Virginia compare on federal spending?

Tennessee has $3.6B in USAspending.gov obligations and 63,616 awards; Virginia has $110.8B and 1,116,647 awards. Populations are 7,227,750 and 8,811,195. Spending per capita is $97.50 versus $1,344.24. FY2026 obligations are $704.7M and $11.8B. All of those figures are obligations, not Treasury outlays.

Is Tennessee close to Virginia in population but not in federal awards?

Yes. Tennessee’s 7,227,750 residents are about 82 percent of Virginia’s 8,811,195, while obligations are $3.6B versus $110.8B. Award counts (63,616 vs 1,116,647) follow the dollars more than the people. Per capita of $97.50 versus $1,344.24 is the compact statement of that mismatch.

What industry leads Tennessee’s federal awards vs Virginia’s?

Tennessee’s top industry is couriers and express delivery services. Virginia’s is other computer related services. Those labels are the largest industry slices on $3.6B and $110.8B in obligations. They do not inventory every NAICS code in either state. Those figures remain USAspending.gov obligations by place of performance, not Treasury outlays and not a score of which state deserves more work.

Are Tennessee vs Virginia spending figures outlays?

No. SpendingVault’s comparison uses USAspending.gov obligations. Treasury outlays are cash that has been paid and can lag obligations. The $3.6B and $110.8B totals, and FY2026 amounts of $704.7M and $11.8B, are commitment figures, not Monthly Treasury Statement payments. Those figures remain USAspending.gov obligations by place of performance, not Treasury outlays and not a score of which state deserves more work.